Predicting The effects of climate change on primary production and vulnerability of fisheries species in coastal waters of the northern Persian Gulf

Authors

1 Department of Marine Biology, College of Marine Science,Khorramshahr University of Marine Science and Technology

2 Department of Marine Biology, College of Marine Science,Khorramshahr University of Marine Science and Technology , P.O. Box: 669, Khorramshahr, Khuzestan, Iran

3 South of Iran Aquaculture Reseach Center

10.22092/ijfs.2024.131273

Abstract

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of predicted climate changes on primary production and vulnerability of fish species in coastal waters of the northern Persian Gulf. Remote sensing data including chlorophyll a and SST through using MODIS sensor images of Terra satellite were obtained from Google Earth Engine system. Net primary production per day was estimated through the VGPM model from the NASA Oceanographic Database (2000-2022). To predict climate change in LARS-WG microscale model that are compared and evaluated under three scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 in the four time periods (2020-2080). These scenarios predict an increase in the average annual SST of 2.4 to 5.3 °C for the future of the region. It showed the inverse correlation between SST and chlorophyll a, and a direct correlation between primary production rate and marine trophic index. The annual comparison of total commercial fisheries catches shows that fish catch will decrease by 169, 185, 386 kg in the RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 scenarios. Correlation of the target species from the total catch with primary production shows that demersal fish species such as Pomadasys kaakan, Glaucostegus granulatus, Otolithes ruber, Atule mate, Trichiurus lepturus and large pelagic such as Planiliza subviridis, Auxis thazard, Tenualosa ilisha, Thunnus tonggol, Coryphaena hippurus and small pelagic such as  Liza klunzingeri species and also jelly fish group express a positive relationship which is an indication of increased vulnerability to climate changes compared to other fish species.

Keywords

Iranian Journal of Fisheries Sciences

Articles in Press, Corrected Proof
Available Online from 13 May 2024

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